Projected Playoff Teams and their Warts

By Warren Sharp

As we sit between weeks 8 and 9, let’s examine the teams currently most likely to make the playoffs and isolate one of their biggest problems they need to fix if they hope to not only make the postseason but win it all next February.  Below we’ll look at these 12 teams, examine their weakness and share their remaining strength of schedule to close out the season.

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NFC East: Cowboys – Secondary & Pass Rush

With a strong offense led by a great offensive line and a strong ground game, the Cowboys will find themselves ahead late in games.  Their opponents will be forced to pass.  And the Cowboys have to be able to get more pressure on the opposing quarterback.  According to Sharp Football Stats teams are passing against the Cowboys 68% of offensive plays in the second half, well above the NFL average. 

Against two of the bottom ten teams in pass protection the last 4 weeks (PHI, CIN), Dallas recorded 3+ sacks.  But in their other three games since week 2, the Cowboys have a total of 2 sacks.  It will be even more vital for them to get pass rush because their secondary suffered two key losses last week, losing DBs Barry Church and Morris Claiborne for multiple weeks.

Remaining Ease in Strength of Schedule (1=Easy, 32=Hard):

• Offense: 15
• Defense: 8

NFC North: Vikings – Offensive Line & Play Calling

The Vikings must figure out a way to get the most out of their offensive line through scheme and play calling, because right now it is not getting the job done.  Sam Bradford has been sacked 11 times the last two weeks, and his passer rating has not cleared 76 in either game.  The run game ranks last in efficiency this year and has not even averaged 3.5 yards/carry in any game.  The Vikings’ offense ranks dead last in my custom metric Early Down Success Rate.

It was well noted that last year I was highly critical of Norv Turner’s persistence in running the ball on first down to start games.  Opponents picked up on it and it severely limited the offense.  The last 4 weeks, the Vikings are 64% run on first half first downs, which is 2^nd most in the NFL.  They are gaining just 2.9 ypc on these runs, and then are forced to go pass on 73% of their second and third downs, well above the NFL average.  Through intelligent play design and play calling, it is possible to minimize the impact of a bad offensive line.  Norv quit the team, so it is incumbent upon the new coordinator to make these moves to improve the offensive efficiency.

Remaining Ease in Strength of Schedule (1=Easy, 32=Hard):

• Offense: 4
• Defense: 25

NFC South: Falcons – Defense

As high flying as the offense has been, the defense has left much to be desired.  With context, the Falcons have faced the 5^th most difficult schedule of opposing offenses per Sharp Football Stats.  Fortunately, relief may come from that very same schedule over the second half of the season, as Atlanta will face the 4^th easiest slate of opposing offenses through the rest of the season. 

But in order to do right by their solid offense, they must improve their defense.  As the opponent progresses the ball down the field, the defense gets worse.  Inside of their own 40 yard line, the Falcons defense is allowing opponents to record successful plays 54% of snaps, the highest rate in the NFL.

Remaining Ease in Strength of Schedule (1=Easy, 32=Hard):

• Offense: 24
• Defense: 4

NFC West: Seahawks – Offensive Line

For a team with just 2 losses in 7 games this year, the sky seems like it is surprisingly falling in Seattle.  As Russell Wilson regains his health following a beating absorbed earlier this year, Seattle’s offense should perform better.  However, keeping Wilson healthy is vital, and may be difficult.  Through the first 8 weeks of the season, Seattle played just one team raking inside the top 15 in pass rush offenses.  The rest of the season, they will face 6 teams, including 4 in consecutive weeks (PHI, TB, CAR, GB).    

The bigger picture ironically comes from Russell Wilson himself.  In 2013, when the Seahwaks won the Super Bowl, they allocated the most money of any team to their offensive line ($28M cap hit) and Wilson’s cheap deal saw him hit the cap for just $681k.  But in 2016, with Wilson hitting the cap for $18.5M on his new contract, the Seahawks are spending just $8M on their offensive line, the least money of any team.  So far, they have faced the 6^th easiest schedule of opposing defenses.  With the 5^th most difficult schedule of defenses on the remaining schedule along with many strong pass rushes, it is vital the offensive line protect the franchise quarterback.

Remaining Ease in Strength of Schedule (1=Easy, 32=Hard):

• Offense: 28
• Defense: 9

NFC Wild Card 1: Packers – Run Game

When Eddie Lacy went out against the Cowboys, the Packers started passing the ball early and often.  The last three weeks, they have passed the ball at least 64% in each game, and an average of 70% overall.  While many teams trail large in the second half and pass to keep up, like the Jaguars, the Packers have called pass 75% of play calls in the first half the last 3 weeks, by far the most in the NFL. 

Their run game those 3 weeks is recording the 28^th rated success rate on run calls.  Inside the opponent’s 40 yard line, just 25% of the Packers runs have graded as successful, the worst mark in the NFL.  It is substantially off of the NFL average of a 50% success rate.  They must improve in their run game to ensure success in the red zone as well as to keep Aaron Rodgers from facing too many pass rushes, and allow the Packers to salt away games in the 4^th quarter.

Remaining Ease in Strength of Schedule (1=Easy, 32=Hard):

• Offense: 20
• Defense: 14

NFC Wild Card 2: Eagles – Offensive Line & Play Calling

There are many ways to help a young QB succeed.  With so much happening in front of him, a sneaky easy way to clear his brain to throw with better accuracy is to have him not need to focus on the pass rush.  You can bypass that by simply releasing the ball quickly and not going down field as often.  Not only will it keep the QB upright, it is also one less thing to clutter his mind with pre-snap. 

From Sharp Football Stats’ performance cones, we can filter to see that Carson Wentz is simply not pushing the ball downfield at all.  Whether it is target frequency downfield, or performance in metrics such as success rate of passes or passer rating, Carson Wentz is far from where the average QB is in terms of performance downfield.  While this does allow the offensive line to not have to block as long and makes decision making easier for Wentz, it is a weakness that needs to be improved quickly.  This is also very noticeable using NFL’s own Next Gen Stats passing chart curated by Matt Harmon.  From last week’s game against the Cowboys, which saw Wentz attempt 43 passes but just 1 traveled more than 13 yards in the air downfield, and it was incomplete.

Remaining Ease in Strength of Schedule (1=Easy, 32=Hard):

• Offense: 26
• Defense: 28

AFC East: Patriots – Pass Rush

With an offense capable of erasing deficiencies on defense and special teams, there are not many weaknesses on the Patriots which could prevent them from making a deep run into the postseason.  But the lone concern is their lack of pass rush which has led to less than stellar performance defending the pass.  The Patriots’ defense currently ranks 31^st in pass rush efficiency.  While this certainly is bad, it is even worse considering they have played 5 games (out of 8) against teams that rank 27^th or worse in pass protection (ARI, BUF x 2, MIA and CIN).

Even if you try to refocus the metrics and look only in the first half of games, as opposed to the second half when games may be more lopsided and the Patriots not needing to rush as much, since week 1 the Patriots have recorded just 3 sacks on 134 opponent drop backs.  In their last 4 first halves, against Tyrod Taylor, backup Landry Jones, poorly protected Andy Dalton or the combination for the Browns of Cody Kessler and Charlie Whitehurst, the Patriots have recorded zero sacks in 75 pass attempts.  An improved pass rush would help the secondary perform better.  While much of the focus is on the dominant offense, this is a weakness of the Patriots moving forward.

Remaining Ease in Strength of Schedule (1=Easy, 32=Hard):

• Offense: 25
• Defense: 1

AFC North: Steelers – Pass Rush & Secondary

First it was the Le’Veon Bell suspension.  Then it was Ben Roethlisberger’s knee surgery.  Once they finally rejoin to form the core of a tremendous offense, the team still has one glaring weakness and that is on the backend of the defense.  The pass rush ranks dead last in the NFL, and has 8 sacks on the season, fewest of any team in the NFL.  Their adjusted sack rate of 2.7% is worst in the NFL and far below the 6% average.

This weakness may not cripple the Steelers during the season, as they face a majority of teams which are stronger on the ground rather than in the air, such as the Bills, Browns, Bengals and Ravens to close out the season.  But inevitably this deficiency will bite them when they have to face any decent passing offense.

Remaining Ease in Strength of Schedule (1=Easy, 32=Hard):

• Offense: 7
• Defense: 13

AFC South: Texans – Quarterback

There are not many teams in playoff contention where a glaring weakness is the quarterback position, which speaks to how important that position is in the modern NFL.  But the Texans are one of those teams.  The Texans offense ranks dead last in efficiency, set back by a 31^st rating in passing efficiency.  This poor efficiency translates to their Early Down Success Rate, which is 31^st in the NFL.  Often, bad passing efficiency is borne from bad pass protection.  Such is the case with the 49ers and the Dolphins.  But Houston’s pass protection ranks 11^th in the NFL.  This is entirely about Brock Osweiler.

Identical to last year in Denver, Brock’s passer rating decreases by down.  He has an 81 rating on first down, 43^rd of all QBs this year.  That drops to 71 on second down and 69 on third down.  These are terrible numbers.  On any pass traveling 15+ yards in the air downfield on 2^nd or 3^rd down, Brock has posted a 24.5 rating.  This is dead last of any QB with at least 10 attempts.  He is 6/27 (22%), 0 TDs and 2 interceptions.

Remaining Ease in Strength of Schedule (1=Easy, 32=Hard):

• Offense: 3
• Defense: 24

AFC West: Broncos – Passing in the Red Zone

The issue is more so isolated to the red zone only.  Toss out the Paxton Lynch game in week 5 and also the week 6 game on a short week where Trevor Siemian was rushed back from injury and was without signal caller Gary Kubiak due to his own health issue.  Over the entire field outside of the red zone, the Broncos passing offense is the 4^th most efficient, with 51% of their passes grading as successful.  However, inside the red zone that rate drops to a dreadful 35% which is 19^th in the NFL.

What could help them?  You instantly would think (at least I would) increase the run rate.  But they already are calling 54% runs in the red zone, which is tied for 4^th most in the NFL.  These run plays are successful 55% of the time (13^th), well above their pass success rate.   A huge problem for Denver is their first down pass success rate which is 33%.   They are calling run plays 68% on 1^st down in the red zone and are successful on 63% of them (6^th in the NFL).  There should be no excuse, with the defense having to defend such a highly used and highly successful run game, for the offense to be as inefficient in the air as it has been.  Denver must improve their first down passing in the red zone, particularly with a thinning running back corps.

Remaining Ease in Strength of Schedule (1=Easy, 32=Hard):

• Offense: 2
• Defense: 30

AFC Wild Card 1: Chiefs – Pass Rush (Defensive and Offensive)

Year to date, the Chiefs have played one of the easiest schedules of opposing pass rushes.  They have played 5 teams (out of 7 games) which rank 25^th or worse in pass rush efficiency.  And yet the Chiefs rank 28^th in pass protection.  Additionally, they just lost their starting QB to a concussion.  Over their last 8 games, they face 5 teams which rank in the top half to the NFL in pass rush efficiency.  The Chiefs must protect their QB better down the stretch against more difficult pass rushes. 

Defensively, the Chiefs rank just 20^th in pass rush efficiency.  There is hope, however, in that specialist Justin Houston will be cleared to return from injury.  Once Houston returns from injury, which happened in prior years, this Chiefs defense, led by their pass rush, typically regains form.  Hopefully for the Chiefs the same is true this year.

Remaining Ease in Strength of Schedule (1=Easy, 32=Hard):

• Offense: 22
• Defense: 23

AFC Wild Card 2: Raiders – Defense

For a team that spent big in the offseason and acquired a number of high priced free agents that were projected to turn the defense around, the Raiders have been nothing short of an utter disappointment.  Their defense ranks 28^th in efficiency, 29^th in the red zone and 30^th in Early Down Success Rate.  The presence of Bruce Irvin, Sean Smith and Reggie Nelson, as well as Karl Joseph has done nothing to improve their numbers from 2015.

The Raiders have played 4 teams to date which rank in the top half of offensive efficiency.  After their week 10 bye and a game against the 32^nd rated Texans offense, the Raiders face 4 teams in 5 weeks with offenses that rank in the top half of the NFL (CAR, BUF, SD, IND), the same number as they played the first 11 weeks.  The only other two games are against tough divisional opponents KC and DEN, whose offenses rank just below league average.  The Raiders defense must find itself during the bye week to be ready to slow down better offenses to close out the season.

Remaining Ease in Strength of Schedule (1=Easy, 32=Hard):

• Offense: 31
• Defense: 10