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Episode 93 Of the NonProphets podcast, in which Robert and Scott interview Kjirste Morrell, fellow Superforecaster, mechanical engineer, and a subject in Adam Grant's new bestselling nook "Think Again". We look at forecasting from an engineers's perspective (0:10); the value of comments (4:30); why Kjirste coined the phrase "The joy of being wrong" (8:35); combatting bias in forecasting (14:05); try some Metaculus long term vexing questions and work through our process (29:15); discuss how many people will have set foot on the moon by 2030 (46:25); and learn about Kjirste's experience working on the Segway at Dean Kamen's DEKA Research. As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com.(recorded 5/14/2021) |