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Home > Energy Week > Episode 51 | Qatar petroleum invests in US LNG facility | Dr. Dean Foreman API Chief Economist | Oil up but not so fast
Podcast: Energy Week
Episode:

Episode 51 | Qatar petroleum invests in US LNG facility | Dr. Dean Foreman API Chief Economist | Oil up but not so fast
Category: Government & Organizations
Duration: 00:52:10
Publish Date: 2018-12-18 18:09:37
Description: Qatar petroleum invests https://www.reuters.com/article/us-qatar-gas-qp/qatar-petroleum-to-invest-20-billion-in-us-in-major-expansion-idUSKBN1OF07X QP is already a majority owner of Golden Pass LNG facility and planning to invest $20 billion more in US oil and gas Also announced investment with ENI in Mexican oil fields which they plan to bring online in 2019, with max 90,000 bpd production in 2021. Oil up but not so fast https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/oil-rallies-but-oversupply-economic-growth-weigh-idUSKBN1OG01L Oil is down and oversupply is a concern. $90 oil isn’t happening, oil unlikely to move much between now and the end of the year (barring a major incident) Will we see more of a shift towards larger companies in the Permian? Role of interest rates? Pdvsa out Aramco in https://www.reuters.com/article/us-refinery-curacao-motiva/motiva-preliminarily-picked-to-run-curacao-refinery-report-idUSKBN1OE0OY Saudi Aramco owns Motiva and has been looking to expand its operations but did not want to expand in Port Arthur, an area prone to hurricanes. Dean Foreman, API Chief Economist Monthly Statistical Report U.S. solidified position as world’s largest oil producer and 4th largest producer of natural gas - how did we get to this point? - rest of the world picked up the slack when China stopped buying US oil exports. - NGLs are a huge contributor to this - Refiners domestically using as much oil as they can. Record in November. On top of that, US is exporting record amounts. - On top of all that, we are seeing a huge inventory boom Oil price environment: - Up until Thanksgiving concerns were supply based (re: Iran Sanctions and Saudi supply) - oil demand grows as about half the rate of global economic growth - US production growth is coming regardless of what demand is - uncertainties around large chunks of supply aren’t moving the market. Futures are now in Contango (prices expected to be higher in the future). Global Demand - a lot of uncertainty in these forecasts - Jet fuel demand as an indicator: it has been very, very strong recently but air travel may slow in coming months. - US economic indicators are still solid, despite stock market roller coaster. Confidence in borrowing up. US relatively insulated from global and emerging market concerns. - Majority of growth tends to be in emerging markets and will still likely see slowing of growth there. - 6th largest monthly decline in oil prices since 1990 this past month. - Chinese independent refineries: as they’ve stopped buying light oil from the U.S. they are substituting Saudi and IRanian light crudes. Will they still be competitive? US refinery capacity is continuing to expand and becoming competitive globally as well. EIA forecasts - See prices dipping until second half of the year when market starts to rationalize it. - DUCs are pent up source of demand growth - During the $60-$80 period many locked in hedging - DUCs mythological creature out there - check out APIs January Well Completion Report - 6 months of wells that could be brought to market but don’t know whether they will or when they will be brought to market. - essentially record levels of production sitting there ready to come online.
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