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Podcast: The Simple Handicap
Episode:

Detroit Lions 2022 NFL Sports Betting Preview
Category: Sports & Recreation
Duration: 00:14:25
Publish Date: 2022-08-05 08:30:08
Description:

Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/detroit-lions-season-betting-preview-2022 

Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com)

1. The price point for the Detroit Lions in 2022 is quite different from 2021. They move from 5 to 6.5 shaded towards 7 win total. An average spread of 8.1 to 3.3. Underdog in 17 games to 14. 

2. In 2021, the Lions were two different teams playing from ahead and playing from behind. Of their 1,047 offensive snaps last season, just 17% saw the Lions leading while 60% saw them trailing by at least a FG. When trailing by 3+ points, the Lions offensive success rate was above average. When leading, they were among the worst in the NFL. All season long the Lions offense performed well when playing from behind, but seldom got out in front and built leads. 

3. The big difference and turning point for the 2021 season was the mid year play caller change. Dan Campbell took over from Anthony Lynn and the team started to target 3 wide receivers at a much higher rate while abanonding targeting Swift out of the backfield like Lynn obsessed over the first half of the season to open up the offense. 

4. With Swift likely to become a much more traditional runner in 2022 behind a strong offensive line, I believe the Lions will increase their pass rate and target more wide receivers as evidenced by signing Chark and drafting Williams 12th. 

5. The secondary remains a huge issue for the Lions and one they neglected in the offseason only adding Mike Hughes to the fold. While I am bullish overall on the offense, defensively this team has many issues heading into the season. 
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