Search


	Podcast:		Astral Codex Ten Podcast
	Episode:		Grading My 2018 Predictions For 2023
	Category:		Technology
	Duration:		00:47:09
	Publish Date:		2023-03-04 13:20:00
	Description:		https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/grading-my-2018-predictions-for-2023 To celebrate the fifth anniversary of my old blog, in 2018, I made some predictions about what the next five years would be like. This was a different experience than my other predictions. Predicting five years out doesn't feel five times harder than predicting one year out. It feels fifty times harder. Not a lot of genuinely new trends can surface in one year; you're limited to a few basic questions on how the current plotlines will end. But five years feels like you're really predicting "the future". Things felt so fuzzy that I (partly) abandoned my usual clear-resolution probabilistic predictions for total guesses.
	Total Play:		0