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This will be the third of these. Three Fridays in a row I've written about Ukraine, meaning the war has been going on each and every day for that long. And a reminder while we head off for the weekend there are still millions who have fled their homes and won't have any sort of weekend to speak of. In fact, they probably don’t know or care what day it is. All they know is Vladimir Putin is still looking to destroy their country. Last week looked bleak, this week less so. Yes, the bombings have reduced places to rubble and some areas of Ukraine have literally been flattened. But in the broader sense of it, for every day that passes where the Russians don’t declare victory, there is not just hope, but I would argue an increasing level of hope, that the window for a miracle is still very much open. Zelenskyy has been relentless in his campaign for help and it is working, tangibly working. If you believe British intelligence, in the next 8 to 10 days, the balance will tip. Ukraine and its support will start to outmuscle Russia and what it's got left. If you believe some of the stories, Russia has lost too many generals, too many of its rank-and-file military have walked and explained they didn’t have a clue what they were heading into. There is no question Kyiv has not been taken. Three weeks in, the first thing you do is grab the capital, so they are bogged down. There have been sanctions announced each and every day this week and it's possible Russia is about to default on debt payments. There's movement on talks. Both sides have their backs against the wall. Zelenskyy has ruled NATO membership out, that's a massive loss. But what does it take to talk Putin down? Come on in President Xi. Everyone agrees he is the singular figure who can convince Putin to stop. Joe Biden is heading to NATO next week and he won't be going empty handed. They will be bullish on how this is playing out, hence the meeting. Do you lock Russia out forever? Are they now a pariah state? A North Korea type nation destined for deprivation, misery, and isolation? Or do you dangle hope via lifting some sanctions? The world is now too engaged not to finish this and they are engaged because they sniff success. It will have come as war always does, at a horrific price. But this week I am more optimistic than I have been for the previous two. I wonder, perhaps it's hope, that this might be brought to an end sooner rather than later.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. |