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Mentor Sessions Ep. 038: James Check on 2025 Bitcoin Bear Market Paradox, Great Rotation Bullish Selling, Cycle-Breaking Outlook & 200K Price Potential
Is Bitcoin in a "modern bear market" up 7.8% YTD despite massive $290B old coin sell-offs? On-chain expert James Check from CheckOnChain reveals why 2025 price action defies expectations, with 63% supply cost basis above 95K creating a "top-heavy" plunge risk to 80s—yet silent institutions absorb billions in "bullish selling" for a great rotation slingshot. In this BTC Sessions interview, Check breaks down paradoxical sentiment (Google Trends at all-time lows), why the 4-year cycle is dead as Bitcoin transitions to macro asset, derivatives shift (options now dominate futures for volatility explosions), treasury mania "smoldering ruins," AI bubble black swan printing trillions, and bull case for 150K fair value exploding to 200K+ fast. Essential Bitcoin price analysis for 2025: Bear firepower fails, sellers evaporate—stack now or get screwed? Don't miss this deep dive on on-chain data, macro traps, and why bears are "really, really wrong" for max pain upside.
Chapters: 00:00 Teaser & Intro 00:01:31 Bear Case Setup 00:02:35 Monthly Expectations Defied 00:03:11 UTXO Cost Basis Analysis 00:04:17 Bullish Selling Phenomenon 00:05:19 Bearish Sentiment Reasons 00:07:08 Institutional Buyers & Demand 00:09:03 Supply Side Indicators 00:10:55 Great Rotation Explained 00:12:18 IPO Moment Challenge 00:17:54 Future Growth & Capital Inflows 00:18:42 Bear Market Drawdown Risks 00:21:28 Psychological Hurdles Post-100K 00:25:24 New vs Old Bitcoiners Psychology 00:29:30 Broader Macro View 00:33:13 M2 Chart Dismissal 00:38:55 States Jumping In 00:42:02 Treasury Companies Mania 00:51:28 Derivatives Market Rundown 00:57:40 Black Swan Events & Bull Case 01:12:13 Outro & Plugs
About James Check: On-chain Bitcoin analyst, founder of CheckOnChain newsletter—delivering data-driven insights on supply, sentiment, and market structure. X.com: @_Checkmatey_ CheckOnChain: checkonchain.com
Check previous ep with Tom Luongo: https://youtu.be/5oS4sop9t2Y
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