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Opening Bell - Morning Commentary
Sentiment remains cautious amid signs of escalation in geopolitical tensions - markets will find buying support at lower levels during pullbacks.
The apparent U.S. softening on China tariffs was a welcome sign for markets battered by Trump's erratic trade policies. On Wednesday, the US stock market ended higher on revived hopes for progress in the US-China trade dispute.
On Wednesday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that high tariffs between the United States and China are not sustainable, as President Donald Trump's administration signalled openness to de-escalating a trade war between the world's two largest economies that has raised fears of recession.
The market seems to welcome any distraction from Trump tariff headlines, if only so it can focus on earnings as the first quarter reporting season gets full swing.
Boeing shares also surged after the plane maker reported a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss. Tesla's share price surged 8.2%, Apple's gained 2.43%, Nvidia's rallied 3.86%, and Amazon's jumped 4.28%.
On the economic front, preliminary April S&P Global PMI data suggested that the U.S. economy continued to expand in April, but at a slower pace than the prior month.
Sales of new US single-family homes increased more than expected in March. New home sales jumped 7.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 724,000 units last month, the highest level since September 2024. Economists polled had forecast new home sales, which make up about 14% of US home sales, to climb to a rate of 680,000 units. Activity in Europe appears to have stagnated in April, with the eurozone composite PMI registering at 50.1, below the prior month's reading of 50.9 and the lowest reading since December of last year.
Trade deals that lead to lower tariff rates over the coming months could support global economic activity and equity markets.
Asian markets opened on a positive note following gains in US markets. Eyes will be on further updates on the trade war, especially on US–Japan negotiations that can impact the USDJPY.
Sentiment remains cautious amid signs of escalation in geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan after the Pahalgam terror attack. India responded by suspending the Indus Water Treaty and downgrading diplomatic ties with Pakistan.
Extending its bullish momentum for the seventh straight session, the Nifty climbed another 161 points (0.67%) yesterday to close at 24328, marking a robust recovery of over 2,600 points from its April 7th low of 21743.
Immediate resistance for the Nifty is seen at 24545, which happens to be a 61.8% retracement of the entire fall from 26277(the All-Time High) to 21743(the 7th April 2025 Low). Support for the Nifty has shifted upwards to 24072.
Indian markets are expected to open marginally lower. Foreign investors have pivoted to net buyers in cash markets (₹21,000 crore net buying since April 7th lows) while gradually covering their short positions in index futures (though still maintaining 67% net short positions). This shift indicates that markets will find buying support at lower levels during pullbacks. |