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Opening Bell - Morning Commentary
Brace for the Opening Slump
On April 2, President Donald Trump announced U.S. reciprocal tariff plans that exceeded market expectations in their scope and severity. A 10% minimum tariff will apply to all imports entering the U.S. beginning April 5, with higher tariffs targeting countries with which the U.S. maintains larger trade deficits. These new measures are projected to raise the effective tariff rate on U.S. imports from 2.3% in 2024 to between 20% - 25%, marking the highest level in at least a century.
China swiftly announced retaliatory tariffs, matching the U.S. reciprocal tariff rate of 34%. This escalating trade war has profoundly unsettled investors and intensified fears of an impending recession. For the week, the Nasdaq plunged 10%, the S&P 500 shed 9.1%, and the Dow declined by 7.9%. U.S. stocks experienced their largest two-day market value erosion in history, with markets losing $11 trillion since Inauguration Day. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated Friday that he anticipates President Trump's tariffs will likely increase inflation while hampering economic growth.
Investor confidence plummeted after U.S. reciprocal tariffs triggered retaliatory measures from China. Sharp fall in U.S. market downturns weakened rebound expectations, and foreign institutional investors selling in Indian markets intensified bearish sentiment.
India, Vietnam, and Israel have initiated discussions to mitigate the fallout from Trump's tariffs, with negotiators hoping to secure bespoke trade agreements. Markets fear uncertainty and will not wait for these issues to be eventually resolved.
Indian markets are likely to slump at the opening today. Global correction has gained momentum. Risky assets are under intense selling pressure. The sharp weakness in global markets is likely to leave its footprint on Indian markets. Nifty could slide down to 22000-21900 zone (near previous swing low of 4th March and also crucial bottom). |