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Opening Bell - Morning Commentary
Trump's Conciliatory Tone Boosts Market Confidence
Markets closed higher Monday on reports that the Trump administration may initially pursue a narrower set of reciprocal tariffs on a group of countries that represent the majority of U.S. trade This could reduce the scope of the inflation impact of tariffs, while also potentially facilitating trade negotiations. Consumer discretionary and communication stocks posted the largest gains, reflecting a risk-on tone to the trading session.
Tesla surged almost 12% in its biggest one-day gain since early November, recovering some of its recent steep decline, helped by optimism about scaled-back U.S. tariffs.
The S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI, rose to 54.3 for March, above forecasts for a modest decline to 50.8.
Trump opened another front in a global trade war by slapping 25% secondary tariffs on any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela, a directive that sent oil prices climbing.
Trump's latest move might impact India and companies like IOC & Reliance, which resumed crude oil imports from Venezuela after the US eased sanctions on the Latin American country in late 2023. Reliance sources around 10% of its daily requirements from Venezuela.
Asian stocks climbed early on Tuesday, following a strong session for US equities. Signs that President Trump's trade sanctions might be less severe than expected boosted market sentiment in Australian and Japanese markets.
The Nifty index continued its upward trajectory, rising for the sixth consecutive session, bolstered by broad-based buying. It gained 307 points, or 1.32%, to close at 23,658 yesterday. It managed to close above its long-term exponential moving average of 200 days, placed at 23400. By surpassing 23612, Nifty has retraced more than 38.2% of the entire downswing seen from all-time high of 26277 to the recent swing low of 21964.
Immediate resistance for Nifty is seen near its previous swing high of 23807 levels, while far resistance is seen at 50% retracement placed near 24125 levels. Support has shifted upwards at 23400.
Indian markets are slated for a positive start, bolstered by Trump's conciliatory tone on tariffs, sustained short-covering activities by foreign investors, and robust institutional buying in cash markets. |