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Opening Bell - Morning Commentary
Short covering to support markets today.
US equity markets finished higher on Wednesday following an announcement that the U.S. will exempt autos from the 25% tariffs that were implemented yesterday on imports from Canada and Mexico for one month. The tariff relief boosted sentiment, with the S&P 500 finishing higher by 1.1% while the Nasdaq posted a 1.5% gain.
The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations, coming in at 53.5 compared to the forecasted 52.5 and the previous month’s 52.8. Additionally, factory orders rebounded strongly, increasing by 1.7% after a revised 0.6% decline in December, marking a 3.5% year-on-year growth in January.
Markets in Europe surged following news that Germany will exempt military and defense spending from its strict fiscal-spending rules, allowing the country to increase its defense spending.
China has set an economic growth target of "around 5%" for the year while unveiling plans to inject billions into its struggling economy, which remains entangled in a trade dispute with the U.S. Beijing’s measures include issuing 1.3 trillion yuan ($179 billion) in special treasury bonds and increasing local government borrowing capacity to 4.4 trillion yuan from the previous 3.9 trillion yuan. The country aims to generate over 12 million urban jobs and keep the unemployment rate around 5.5 percent for 2025, up from 5.1 percent last year.
A global bond selloff accelerated on Thursday, pushing Japanese benchmark yields to the highest in over a decade after heavy selling in German bunds spread across fixed-income markets. A delay to some US tariffs on Mexico and Canada buoyed Asian stocks.
Back home, RBI will conduct two OMO purchases worth Rs 50,000 crore each on March 12 and March 18 and a USD/INR Buy/Sell Swap auction of $10 billion for a tenor of 36 months on March 24. This will inject more liquidity into the system.
India’s services sector showed resilience, with the Services PMI expanding to 59 in February 2025 from 56.5 the previous month, counterbalancing a slowdown in manufacturing PMI. The Indian rupee strengthened on Wednesday as the dollar index fell, resulting in gains across most Asian currencies.
The Nifty closed above its 5-day exponential moving average (EMA) for the first time since February 6, 2025, potentially signalling a reversal from a bearish to a bullish trend in the short term. Resistances for the Index are seen at 22500 and 22700. On the downside 22173 and 22000 could offer support in the Nifty. The market is expected to remain buoyant due to short-covering, as investors—particularly foreign portfolio investors (FPIs)—have substantial short positions in Indian stocks.
Indian markets are slated for a positive start today as tariff relief has provided a boost to sentiment. |