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In the week gone by, the Indian rupee surged and purged but closed with no change. It has outperformed Asian currencies amid dollar inflows. The RBI surprised the market with a 10% ICRR to control inflation and remove surplus liquidity and kept the other rate unchanged with a “withdrawal of accommodative” stance. The domestic equity market remained under pressure, in line with its Asian peers. Foreign institutions remained net buyers of Indian equities and debt by investing more than $800mn in the past week.
● Last week, spot USDINR closed at 82.84, the strongest close since February 27. The set-up favours the bulls club amid broad-based strength in the greenback and risk-averse sentiments across the globe. In a holiday truncated week, the pair is expected to find support at 82.50 and resistance at 83.30.
● After whipsawing amid mixed US economic data, the dollar index finally ended the week with gains of 0.81% to 102.84, up for a fourth straight week for the first time since February. The current monetary policy mix in developed nations and divergent economic momentum are acting as catalysts for a stronger US dollar.
● Data last week encouraged the case for a prolonged pause in the Fed’s hiking cycle. But for the Indian traders, the focus will shift to India’s CPI, which might leap above RBI’s tolerance level amid surging vegetable and food article prices. |