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Home > Energy Week > Episode 93 - Coronavirus | Oil markets and China | OPEC and Trump | Union Members on Democrats
Podcast: Energy Week
Episode:

Episode 93 - Coronavirus | Oil markets and China | OPEC and Trump | Union Members on Democrats
Category: Government & Organizations
Duration: 00:57:33
Publish Date: 2020-01-28 09:32:03
Description: New York Times Western Pennsylvania podcast episode - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-swing-issue-that-could-win-a-swing-state/id1200361736?i=1000463544308

How the stock market has performed during past viral outbreaks, as epidemic locks down 16 Chinese cities
https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/6A955A3E-3D43-11EA-A3B8-BC9F4A046959?
- check out charts showing market and other epidemics
- But do these epidemics REALLY impact the market?
- SARS 2003 coincided with invasion of Iraq and H1N1 2009 coincided with housing market bust

Oil drops below $60 as China virus stokes demand concern
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/oil-drops-below-60-as-china-virus-stokes-demand-concern-idUSKBN1ZQ02Z
- China may just continue with its policy of importing into storage

OPEC eyes deeper cuts to head off impact of China virus: source
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/012720-saudi-arabia-ready-to-support-oil-market-as-china-coronavirus-spreads-minister?
- If OPEC says it will continue cuts through end of 2020 now does that really mean anything?

In Crucial Pennsylvania, Democrats Worry a Fracking Ban Could Sink Them
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/27/us/politics/pennsylvania-democrats-fracking.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share
- Fracking provides $$ for the state and democrats get to distribute that, but what do voters think?

Dr. Dean Foreman with API - API Monthly Statistical Report
- More refining and petrochemical expansions
- Exports of 9 million bpd = crude oil + products. Record despite the fact that products side is down. Crude oil exports up even before US-China trade deal
- despite slowing drilling activity, production is up
- Seasonality aside this is a trend driven by strong production growth but should expect growth to slow and inventories to normalize in future
- Increase in US crude exports due to IMO 2020 can’t be correlated for sure, first quarter data will show more.
- Dearth of buying from China due to trade negotiations. US was finding other markets for US crude oil and other products across Asia, Latin America, etc.
- Details of US-CHina Phase one trade deal show that China will commit to purchasing US “energy” includes: coal, products, crude oil, etc. really is a $52 billion commitment over 2 years. What does this mean for the economy?
- 1/2 million to 1 million more barrels per day. LNG increases too.
- Mix of refined products that China buys from US are heavy on naphtha and propane. These are sold at a discount to crude oil. So crude oil is the product that can really move the needle.
- But US can only export so much crude oil.
- Shipping implications of this for Panama Canal. Don't let more than 4 LNG ships through locks at one time.
- Logistical implications of how the market will sort out the transportation issues of all of this.
- Natural gas market broken? Actually its the largest in the world. Not broken. 45 years of nat gas on record for Henry Hub - lowest prices.
- DUCs down by 10%
- Gasoline deliveries diverged regionally: seeing changes over time. More decline in urban and less in rural. Gasoline demand decreased but reformulated gasoline decreased more and conventional gasoline increased. Pretty strong given the trade and agriculture downturn this past year.

Catch Dr. Foreman at the Argus Crude Oil Summit on Feb 5!
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