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Home > Energy Week > Episode 82 - Aramco repairs | Mitsubishi trader loses $320M | Devin Geoghegan (Genscape)
Podcast: Energy Week
Episode:

Episode 82 - Aramco repairs | Mitsubishi trader loses $320M | Devin Geoghegan (Genscape)
Category: Government & Organizations
Duration: 00:44:18
Publish Date: 2019-09-24 07:15:20
Description: Aramco’s Repairs Could Take Months Longer Than Company Anticipates, Contractors Say
https://www.wsj.com/articles/aramcos-repairs-could-take-months-longer-than-company-anticipates-contractors-say-11569180194?
- difference between supply, production, output and capacity
- hard to parse out what is relevant and what the narrative that’s being painted
- how exactly

Oil steadies on hopes of full Saudi output restart
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/oil-edges-further-above-64-on-doubts-over-saudi-supply-idUSKBN1W8037
- Won’t see full impact of lost barrels until mid-Oct because of how exports work
- Will we see a big draw in a month and traders will trade up?
- Some argue the market isn’t taking this seriously enough, but the market doesn’t have a motive and if the market doesn’t think the threat to Saudi oil is serious, then it’s not.

Saudi Arabia tells Japan's biggest refiner about possible shipment change: Nikkei
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-aramco-oil-japan/saudi-arabia-tells-japans-biggest-refiner-about-possible-shipment-change-nikkei-iduskbn1w7020

Mitsubishi says Singapore-based oil trader lost $320 million in unauthorized trades
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mitsubishi-crude-trading-results/mitsubishi-says-singapore-based-oil-trader-lost-320-million-in-unauthorized-trades-idUSKBN1W510H
- trader has been missing since August
- what were his trades? How did he manage to lose so much money?
- How does the market feel about this?
- But it may not even impact PDS earnings because the company made $5 billion between January and March

Interview with Devin Geoghegan Global Director of Petroleum Intelligence from Genscape

- Tell us about Genscape and what you guys do.
Worlds largest private network of infield monitors. Power, oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids, maritime data.

- The oil market is currently obsessed with whether Saudi Aramco is capable of meeting its ambitious repair targets for the damage incurred at Abqaiq and Khurais. What light can you shed on what you see happening on the ground in Saudi Arabia in terms of production?
Detected fields producing no less than about 50% of original capacity right after attacks happened.
Wednesday/Thursday about 60% returned and along the week seen a couple offshore fields begin to ramp up production through detected signals. So far what Aramco has reported, they have corroborated what Aramco has said is happened.
Use satellites to tell how much heat is coming off an oil field and historical production to create oil flaring ratio. Draw a GPS fence around a field and measure how much heat vs. oil.
Of the 5.7 million bpd from impacted areas (Abqaiq, Khurais, Shaybah) 65% already flowing
Good portion of remaining capacity at offshore fields beginning to ramp up
Different grade, offshore oil is heavier.
Misunderstanding about which fields are connected to Abqaiq and which weren’t. Khurais not constrained by Abqaiq - processed on site
Shaybah misunderstandings - that field is less constrained by Abqaiq than more suspected. No difference in production detected. Diagrams indicate that Shaybah goes through Abqaiq but crude there is partially stabilized in Shaybah before going to Abqaiq. Aramco built massive NGL facility at Shaybah so they are processing it there and no need for that oil to go through the spheroids at Abqaiq. Goes straight to desulfurization towers. Shaybah oil is naturally really low in sulfur. Believe it’s being taken to Abqaiq and blended with other oil from Beri.

- Any impact of explosion on satellite readings?
Definitely didn’t build algorithm for missile attacks but shift to a manual mode and take over from algorithm. Look at points of light and temperature manually and then account for other heat. Takes a little longer.
Flaring data going back to 2012. Gathering field data for 5+ years. Even when people say field data is unavailable you can find information in Arabic/Farsi other languages.
Most detections come from field detection itself. Occasionally look at refineries but usually look at GOSPs and flaring.
Geofence each field based on flare stacks.
Data is provided every day.

- How could or should traders put this type of information and data to work for them?
Most use cases for data outside of missile attacks are blended with other information, can see if countries are producing more or less than they claim.
In events like this or during Venezuela power outages, data can cut through noise or bias from sources.

- Where can listeners find you and your business?
Website https://www.genscape.com/ and twitter @globaloilSD
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