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Home > Energy Week > Episode 71 - Iranians get blamed | OPEC can't use iCalendar | Dr. Dean Foreman
Podcast: Energy Week
Episode:

Episode 71 - Iranians get blamed | OPEC can't use iCalendar | Dr. Dean Foreman
Category: Government & Organizations
Duration: 00:51:53
Publish Date: 2019-06-18 03:25:14
Description: The US energy revolution continues to exceed expectations, despite negative predictions https://www.api.org/news-policy-and-issues/blog/2019/06/12/growing-us-energy-revolution-keeps-exceeding-expectations Saudi seeks oil supply protection as U.S and Iran face off https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/06/15/reuters-america-wrapup-3-saudi-seeks-oil-supply-protection-as-u-s-and-iran-face-off.html Saudis want the US to secure the transit of oil in the Persian Gulf - should the US be doing this? Political pressure on the US to do something. Oil prices jumped 4% when the incident occurred but prices had just fallen 4% the previous day. Interview: Abundant oil supply prevented spike to $140/b after ship attacks - US DOE deputy https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/061619-interview-abundant-oil-supply-prevented-spike-to-140-b-after-ship-attacks-us-doe-deputy It sounds crazy, but we have seen wartime oil prices spike $140 may be too high - representative of a really high number, not an actual forecast. Also, Polish President visited US LNG plant with US energy secretary Rick Perry Iran, Russia talks raise hopes of progress on OPEC+ meeting date https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec/iran-russia-talks-raise-hopes-of-progress-on-opec-meeting-date-idUSKCN1TI11J Larger issues of Russia/Saudi Arabia/Iran - is IRan trying to get something out of the meeting date issue? Can they work out a date? If they agree on a date can they agree on quotas. Possibility that they might not agree on any extension in which case the shale oil industry could be in for some problems. https://tdameritradenetwork.com/video/rB4AoWs0FU-Ba1aPohoFqw API Monthly Statistical Report US crude oil production high 12.2 mbpd Texas producing 5 mbpd - is that good news or bad news right now? Good news! We are seeing a significant alleviation of serious bottlenecks. Between Permian and Bakken we are flaring the entire natural gas usage of Israel in a year! How much natural gas does the US have? 100-200 years worth of natural gas. For US LNG to get a foothold in Europe it would have to compete against so many other sources, including Africa! Less competition with Asia, which is why the US really wants to get contracts with China. If the US can convince Asian trading partners that US gas is reliable and US is reliable trading parter, it will increase liquidity and depth across the globe. Slowing trend of industrial activity across the US - current statistics from IEA say concern is mostly in global economy not US. API economic indicators indicate reverse. US demand for petroleum down to 20.1 mbpd - distillate demand is weak, diesel demand especially dropping. Fell 9% - is this why we keep seeing larger builds in US stocks? Are we using more domestically produced oil to compensate or are imports down? Are refinery runs down or are we exporting the unused diesel? What is driving them? Freight and agriculture are the big areas of weakness. Flooding in the Midwest is probably a factor - but also China’s decision not to buy US soybeans. Seems We’ve got slipping gasoline and diesel demand but record jet fuel demand - this complicates the “economic slowdown” picture. The fact that jet fuel demand is still up could indicate that the weaknesses aren’t indicative of economic slowdown but really uncertainty due to the trade issues. Concerns over whether there’s enough diesel fuel as we go into IMO 2020. Alleviation of bottlenecks - by the end of 2019 will see about 1.5 million barrels worth of new petroleum pipelines come online. More for natural gas.
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