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Home > Exponential View with Azeem Azhar > My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?
Podcast: Exponential View with Azeem Azhar
Episode:

My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?
Category: Technology
Duration: 00:30:25
Publish Date: 2025-09-10 13:57:08
Description:

Can AI stocks beat Big Tech? In this episode, I discuss OpenAI and its decision to expand a secondary share sale that lets insiders sell about $10.3 billion of stock at roughly a $500 billion valuation. Although skeptical at first, the calculations reveal there is a path for OpenAI to deliver outsized returns.

I cover:

(0:00) The $500B question 

(01:11) Why the Nasdaq Index is the benchmark 

(03:35) Inside the OpenAI-Microsoft deal 

(05:50) The bull case: OpenAI’s trillion-dollar path 

(09:33) The AI market explosion 

(12:39) The bear case: Competition and constraints 

(17:13) Exploring the models of tomorrow 

(20:58) The disruption premium 

(23:21) Where will OpenAI’s revenue come from? 

(29:14) The final verdict
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